HDTV's future getting in focus by Richard Blackwell

Got a high definition television on your Christmas list? Or are you waiting for Hockey Night in Canada to be broadcast in HD before taking the plunge?

That dilemma essentially sums up the current state of affairs with high definition television in Canada -- a "chicken and egg" situation where consumers are hesitating to invest in expensive equipment until there is more programming, and producers are slow in shifting to the new technology until there is a critical mass of receivers in place.

But there has been considerable movement on both sides of that equation in recent months, partly driven by the fact that the United States is moving full-steam ahead on its shift to the digital high-definition universe.

This Christmas will likely see a record number of HD-compatible television sets sold in Canada, more and more HD channels are being offered and there is an increasing amount of programming available. And that's going to accelerate in the next few years, experts say.

About 1.2 million HD-compatible TVs are in Canadian homes now (although only about 180,000 are actually used to receive HD programming), according to Convergence Consulting Group Ltd.

The number of HD sets will grow to 3.1 million by 2006, and those receiving HD signals will increase four-fold by then, the research firm predicts.

"What we're going to see in the next two years in Canada is a critical mass of HD sets being hooked up to the Canadian broadcast system, and therefore a critical mass of viewers that starts to make a business difference," said Peter Miller, head of regulatory affairs at CHUM Ltd., whose CITY TV station in Toronto was the first in Canada to broadcast in HD over the airwaves.

What's driving the shift to HD, besides the fabulous picture and sound that many people say takes the television-watching experience to a new level, is the fact that the United States has made a huge commitment to move to the new technology.

The Federal Communications Commission has been pushing the transition to HD, and the networks have signed on with a major shift to producing many of their prime time shows in the new technology.

In Canada, the CRTC has been content to allow what it calls a "market driven transition," allowing programmers and carriers to shift as they see fit.

CRTC chairman Charles Dalfen expressed some misgivings about the progress of change in a recent speech, when he said he was concerned about the HD gap between Canada and the United States.

Mr. Dalfen said there needs to be more Canadian HD production and he encouraged the industry to "speed up the transition to digital and to HD, so that Canadian broadcasters will continue to be vigorous competitors for television viewers."

Still, says Michael McEwen, the head of Canadian Digital Television, an industry sponsored body set up to promote the move to HD, "Canada's strategy was always to lag behind the U.S. by a couple of years."

The idea was to wait for the United States to settle on transmission standards and to watch as the prices fell for production, transmission and receiving equipment. However, with the United States moving ahead and the gap widening, it's time for Canada to catch up, Mr. McEwen said.

Mr. Miller, of CHUM, said that from the broadcasters' perspective, there is "a concern that if we don't go to HD and the U.S. [channels] go HD, we'll start to lose viewers to the U.S. services."

There are a number of reasons why the shift to HD has progressed slowly in Canada, and why we may be now at a tipping point that will accelerate growth:

The cost for consumers

"It's not cheap to get into this," says Brahm Eiley, president of Convergence Consulting. Many HD-ready television sets cost thousands of dollars, although the price is dropping steadily and some HD sets can now be purchased for under $1,000.

Many people who own HD-ready sets bought them to set up home theatre systems and watch DVDs, and don't yet have them hooked up to watch HD signals. That's partly because there are even more costs involved: Each set needs a set-top box or internal card to receive HD signals off air or from a cable or satellite supplier. The current cost for that equipment is about $15 a month to rent, or $400 to $600 to buy.

Then there's the price to subscribe to a package of HD channels from a cable or satellite provider. Rogers Cable offers 14 HD channels for free to digital cable subscribers, with 7 others packaged for $4.95 a month. Bell ExpressVu charges $10 a month for the HD versions of any regular channels the subscriber already pays for. ExpressVu currently carries 25 HD channels.

Still, an increasing number of television subscribers seem willing to pay the premium.

David Purdy, vice-president and general manager for television at Rogers Cable, said about 20 per cent of new cable subscribers who sign up for digital service opt for HD boxes, and that number jumps to about 40 per cent in the lead up to Christmas. Over all, about 10 per cent of digital subscribers at Rogers have HD boxes.

The limited amount of HD content.

Currently, most Canadian cable and satellite companies transmit HD versions of the U.S. networks, and some other Canadian high definition channels such as the HD version of CTV, Global, TSN, Sportsnet, and some movie channels.

CBC and CTV are planning to start over-the-air broadcasts of HD versions of their channels in some markets within a few months and under CRTC rules the cable and satellite companies will have to add those channels to their HD mix.

Nowhere near all the shows on these channels are produced and transmitted in HD, however, although the proportion of HD content is increasing.

The U.S. networks now produce the bulk of their prime-time shows in HD, for instance. But until recently there has been little Canadian production.

One reason is that it is very expensive to purchase HD compatible production equipment. And it doesn't generate any extra revenue or boost margins for the broadcast players, although they recognized that the move has to be made for competitive reasons.

While HD doesn't actually increase the audience, said Mr. Miller of CHUM, "it will increasingly become a competitive disadvantage if you're not there."

CTV president Rick Brace likens the shift to HD to the transition to colour four decades ago. "It took approximately ten years to go from black and white to colour, and I guess the question is, will this follow that model or are we more in an age where things happen more quickly." Mr. Brace said he thinks it will start slowly "and then really take off."

Mr. McEwen said his organization is trying to persuade independent producers that they too need to shift to HD, to ensure their shows have "shelf life" after HD becomes more widespread.

In less than 10 years, Mr. McEwen predicts, analogue broadcast signals will be gone forever. At that point, people who still have old-fashioned TVs will have to buy a special digital box to convert the signals to work on the old sets.

A few might even graft the new technology on to their old black and white machine.

HD defined

High definition television differs from standard television in size, picture resolution, and sound.

Standard television pictures have an aspect ratio (the proportion of width to height) of 4 to 3, while HD has a wide screen picture with an aspect ratio of 16 to 9. A standard television picture has as many as 720 pixels (or dots) per line, while HD has 1,280 or 1,920. Standard television has 480 lines per picture, while HD has 720 or 1,080.

HD also has far better sound, with as many as six channels, while standard television has only one or two.

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