Public frowns on PM despite vote, poll finds by Shawn McCarthy

by Shawn McCarthy

Prime Minister Jean Chrétien won his third consecutive majority even though most Canadians disapproved of the way he was doing his job, according to an election day poll by Ipsos-Reid Group.

Mr. Chrétien's success was clearly the product of an even greater distrust of Canadian Alliance Leader Stockwell Day, according to the post-vote survey of 2,350 people, which Ipsos-Reid conducted by e-mail.

"Definitely, this election was about the ability of the Liberals to do a paint job on Stockwell Day and their ability to build fear about the other party's campaign," Darrel Bricker, Ipsos-Reid president of public affairs, said yesterday.

Sixty-two per cent of respondents said Mr. Day's party had a hidden agenda, including 66 per cent of those in Ontario and even 51 per cent of respondents in Western Canada.

Asked whether the Liberals are arrogant and corrupt, 58 per cent of those surveyed said yes and 41 per cent said no.

The survey was a first of its kind in Canada. Ipsos-Reid had 2,350 voters, who had responded to previous surveys, fill out a questionnaire over the Internet after voting.

Mr. Bricker said the sample provided a reasonable representation of the voting public, which has a higher socio-economic status, on average, than the overall adult population.

Sixty-six per cent of respondents agreed that Mr. Chrétien "doesn't have what it takes any more to lead the country," while 59 per cent disapproved of the way he was doing his job.

Even among Liberal voters, 36 per cent said Mr. Chrétien no longer has what it takes, and 25 per cent disapproved of his job performance.

Mr. Bricker said Mr. Chrétien's personal approval ratings were among the lowest in his seven years as Prime Minister.

"Mr. Chrétien did not emerge from this campaign unharmed; it took its toll," Mr. Bricker said. "But it is almost irrelevant now. He said it at the press conference: 'I won; I won big.' "

Mr. Chrétien clearly drew on the political capital he had built up in government before the election campaign. Forty-eight per cent of respondents said the Liberal government deserved to be re-elected because it had done a good job running the country. Even 49 per cent of New Democratic Party supporters and 21 per cent of Progressive Conservative supporters agreed the Liberals deserved to be re-elected.

Forty-one 41 per cent of respondents approved of Mr. Chrétien's performance, and the Liberals won their comfortable majority with 41 per cent of the popular vote.

Unlike the United States, where a president needs a strong mandate to push a legislative agenda through Congress, a prime minister has vast powers to govern so long as he or she wins a majority.

While Mr. Chrétien's personal reputation took a hit in the hardball campaign, he managed to take advantage of Mr. Day's inexperience on the national stage and suggest he had a hidden social-conservative agenda.

Sixty-seven per cent of voters who responded to the Ipsos-Reid survey said the Alliance is "too new and inexperienced to be trusted" and 71 per cent of Ontario voters said the same, effectively putting a ceiling on the party's popular support in that province. As well, 83 per cent of Tory voters – whom the Alliance had targeted as potential supporters – agreed the fledgling party lacked the necessary experience to be trusted.

There is some suggestion that the Liberals were bleeding support to the Progressive Conservatives in the late stages of the campaign, though clearly not enough to affect the outcome.

Nearly half of Liberal voters said they had made up their minds before the campaign started, while 83 per cent of Tory voters made up their mind after the televised debate in which Tory Leader Joe Clark shone.

By election day, Mr. Clark's personal popularity had become a major asset for his previously moribund party. Mr. Clark's approval rating was the highest of all the leaders' at 76 per cent. Forty per cent of respondents said the Tory Leader would make the best prime minister, as opposed to only 20 per cent for Mr. Chrétien.

Polling the Liberals

QUESTION: Do you agree/disagree: Jean Chrétien doesn't have what it takes anymore to lead the country?
Agree 66%
Disagree 33%

QUESTION: Do you agree/disagree: The Liberals are arrogant and corrupt?
Agree 58%
Disagree 41%

Source: Ipsos-Reid

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